题目
Consider a seasonal agricultural market like wheat. Assume the harvest is normal and not unusually or unusually small. Now consider the following statement about the market. I Prices fall at the harvest and rise after the harvest. II Prices are constant on average across the year, regardless of seasonality. III Prices rise at the harvest and fall afterwards. IV The market is in contango when the harvest comes in. V The market is in backwardation when the harvest comes in. VI If the market goes into contango, it is most likely to do so right before a new harvest. VII If the market goes into backwardation, it is most likely to do so right before a new harvest. Which of the above statements are correct?
选项
A.I and IV only
B.I, II, IV and VI only
C.III, V and VI only
D.I, IV and VII only
答案
D
解析
Explanation: The new harvest ‘resets’ the storage market. For a while, consumption and production occur directly from the new harvest, and prices are low. Prices begin to rise as storage begins to occur. As the next harvest approaches, inventory may get tight, sending the market into backwardation.这要从供求的角度去理解，最简单的分析方法就是假定期货价格维持在一定水平1市场价格受供求影响，收获刚刚结束，市场上的供大于求，价格下降2明显就是错的。3与1说法相反4当收获来临的时候，现货供大于求，现货价格下降，小于期货价格，目前状态是contango。（comes in一般指即将到来，在这个题目中翻译为现在时更加贴切，丰收季即将到来的时候，投资者的预期会影响他们的消费行为，这时候他们不再会花大价格买粮食，粮食价格会下降。）7在一个新的丰收之前，市场上供小于求，现货价格上涨，大于期货价格，市场状态是backwardation。(下一个丰收日到来之前，粮食会被逐渐吃完，那么价格会回升上去，并大于未来的价格，因为现在吃粮食的效用更大)