题目
In designing its sovereign bond investment evaluation methodology, the Investment Committee at your firm is deciding whether to incorporate sovereign credit ratings by major firms (namely S&P, Moody's, and/or Fitch). Your colleague Mary asserts that your firm should NOT depend on sovereign credit ratings by major firms. She makes the four arguments below. Which of her arguments below is the MOST persuasive?
选项
A.Credit rating agencies have a conflict of interests with respect to sovereign ratings
B.For any given sovereign bond, there is very little consistency among the agencies such that any almost rating can be justified
C.Agencies take too long to change sovereign ratings, including the special case of an overly-optimistic rating that fails to anticipate deep sovereign risk only to suddenly downgrade the sovereign multiple times in s short period of time
D.Historical analysis comparing sovereign ratings to actual sovereign defaults generally produce no statically meaningful correlation; i.e., default rates of investment grade sovereign bonds are not statistically less than default rates of speculative sovereign bonds
答案
C
解析
Agencies take too long to change sovereign ratings, including the special case of an overly-optimistic rating that fails to anticipate deep sovereign risk only to suddenly downgrade the sovereign multiple times in a short period of time. Ratings are upward biased There is herd behavior Too little, too late Vicious Cycle Ratings failures 机构花费太长时间来更改主权评级，包括过分乐观的评级的特殊情况，这种特殊情况无法预期到严重的主权风险，只能在短时间内多次突然降级主权。 评级向上偏 有牧群行为 太少太迟 恶性循环 评级失败