题目
The following joint probability matrix captures the relationship between Inflation (which can be either Down, Steady or Up) and the Market (which can be either Bear, Range-bound, or Bull):「huixue_img/importSubject/1564169386028306432.png」About this joint probability matrix, each of the following statements is correct EXCEPT which is false?
选项
A.The unconditional probability of a Bear Market is 19.0%
B.The probability of a Bull Market conditional on Up Inflation is about 58.8%
C.The probability of a Down Inflation conditional on a Bear Market is about 21.4%
D.The joint probability of Up Inflation and Range-bound Market is 8.0%
答案
C
解析
C is incorrect. Instead, the probability of a Down Inflation conditional on a Bear Market is given by 3.0%/19.0% = 15.79%. On the other hand, the probability of a Bear Market conditional on Down Inflation is given by 3.0%/14.0% = 21.43%In regard to true (A), the unconditional probability of a Bear market is the sum of eachof its joint probabilities: 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% = 19.0% (already displayed outside thematrix)In regard to true (B), the conditional probability Pr(Bull Market | Up Inflation) =20.0%/34.0% = 58.8%In regard to true (D), the joint probability Pr(Up Inflation ∩ Range-bound Market) =8.0% as already displayed (the inner square represents joint probabilities)C不正确。 取而代之的是，以熊市为条件的通货膨胀率下降的概率为3.0％/ 19.0％= 15.79％。 另一方面，以向下通货膨胀为条件的熊市的概率为3.0％/ 14.0％= 21.43％A选项正确：熊市的无条件概率是其每个联合概率的总和：3.0％ 10.0％ 6.0％= 19.0％（已显示在矩阵外部）B选项正确：条件概率Pr(Bull Market | Up Inflation) =20.0%/34.0% = 58.8%D选项正确：已经显示的联合概率Pr(Up Inflation ∩ Range?bound Market) =8.0% (内部正方形表示联合概率）