题目
The risk department at an investment firm has been asked to evaluate the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors on some of its fund investments. In regard to climate change, the staff has determined that climate change does present a risk that is important, and possibly very large, but they cannot currently calculate the risk. Among the following four classic risks (which constitute part of the second building block in GARP risk management process: Analyze), which most accurately describes the firm's orientation toward climate change?
选项
A.Expected loss
B.Unexpected loss
C.Knightian uncertainty
D.Unknown unknown
答案
C
解析
The answer is Knightian uncertainty, because to the firm it is "known unknown". Knight distinguished between variability that cannot be quantified at all, which he called uncertainty, and "true" risk that can be quantified in terms of statistical science. Incalculable Knightian uncertainties can be very large and important. Nuclear war is a major threat to the world, but its chances of happening are impossible to estimate.答案是奈特式不确定性，因为对企业而言，它是“已知的未知”。 奈特区分了根本无法量化的可变性（他称之为不确定性）和可以根据统计科学量化的“真实”风险。 不可估量的奈特式不确定性可能非常大且重要。 核战争是对世界的主要威胁，但其发生的可能性无法估计。